Thursday, April 03, 2008

The Final Four Is A Perfect Fit

For the first time in history, all four #1-seeds have made it through the first four rounds of the tournament unscathed to collectively arrive at the Final Four. On one side of the bracket, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks will compete for the right to play for the national championship. On the other side of the bracket, the Memphis Tigers and UCLA Bruins will do battle.

These four programs have proven all season that they deserve this chance. The NCAA selection committee agreed when they handed out top seeds to each. The numbers agree as well. Though I will not release a complete poll until after every game in the tournament is played, my real-time rankings have Memphis (37-1) ranked #1, followed by UCLA (35-3), North Carolina (36-2), and Kansas (35-3). The top ten is rounded out by Wisconsin (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Texas (31-7, exited in the Elite Eight), Tennessee (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Duke (28-6, exited in the second round), Louisville (27-9, exited in the Elite Eight), and Georgetown (28-6, exited in the second round).

In addition, I have two other ranking models that I use, though I do not release them publicly. They are referred to as the Q-score indicator and P-score indicator. These models were designed specifically for predicting game outcomes. At present, Memphis is #1 in the Q-score rankings (.7676), followed by North Carolina (.7559), Kansas (.7362), and UCLA (.7256). Memphis is also ranked #1 by the P-score indicator (.7691), followed by Kansas (.7651), North Carolina (.7559), and UCLA (.7455).

No matter how you look at it, the four most deserving programs will be competing in San Antonio for the National Championship.

It is interesting, however, that Kansas has been fortunate enough to have other teams doing their dirty work for them thus far. They've knocked off the 16-seed (Portland State), the 9-seed (Kent State), the 12-seed (Villanova), and the 10-seed (Davidson). Their bracket had Wisconsin, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Clemson, USC, Gonzaga, and UNLV, yet Kansas didn't have to face any of them. Has a team ever made the Final Four without facing an 8-seed or higher?

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Opinion: Roadmap for Conference USA

Mike Slive, the original commissioner for Conference USA, played a major role in creating one of the seven best conferences in the nation for all sports. By the end of his tenure, the football schools included: Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU, East Carolina, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB, and Army. Of that group, only Army was a football-only member, as the rest were C-USA hoops programs also. Joining them in basketball were Marquette, DePaul, Charlotte, and St. Louis.

C-USA routinely had representation in the Top 25 for football, men's basketball, women's basketball, and baseball. Furthermore, C-USA routinely boasted big wins over the nation's elite programs and sent multiple teams to postseason play on an annual basis. Slive did such a good job establishing C-USA that the SEC came calling when their commissioner role became available.

Conference USA then hired Britton Banowsky. The conference he inherited was a strong one with a lot of potential for future growth and success. Unfortunately, in the horizon was a conference realignment that would shake C-USA at its very core.

The ACC opted to expand from 9 teams to 12, becoming eligible for a football championship game and hoping to create the next mega-conference. Their targets were three premier Big East members (Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College). The Big East was left with their six non-football playing members (Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Providence, and Seton Hall), five football playing members (Syracuse, West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and Temple), and Connecticut (already in for basketball and scheduled to join for football). Temple had already been voted out.

The easiest things for the Big East to do were to advance the schedule for Connecticut's entry into the league for football and slip the schedule for Temple's departure. However, this still left a need for football members. In addition to that, the non-football playing members were adamant about equal representation. Thus, for every football-playing member added after the first one, there had to also be an additional non-football playing member added.

Based on what Mike Slive had created, C-USA was the obvious target for Big East replacement schools. Louisville was the obvious first choice. After that, two all-sports programs (Cincinnati and South Florida) were gobbled up as were two non-football playing schools (Marquette and DePaul). This left C-USA with just two non-football playing members (Charlotte and St. Louis), and both wanted out as a result. C-USA and the Big East worked together to place those programs in the Atlantic 10.

As if the loss of those seven programs wasn't bad enough, Army had already voted to return to independent status for football. Additionally, TCU accepted an invitation to join the Mountain West conference amid all the turmoil C-USA was experiencing. In all, C-USA lost nine schools (five of its eleven football members and eight of its fourteen basketball members).

Banowsky sat by while his conference was raided and reacted after it was all said and done. He and the six remaining C-USA schools (East Carolina, Houston, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB, and Memphis) moved towards a 12-school all-sports conference with a southern footprint. The result was the addition of UCF, Marshall, Rice, Tulsa, SMU, and UTEP. The six new members brought with them one school that had experienced notable recent success in football (Marshall) and none that had experienced notable recent success in basketball. The entire hope for the future of the conference was based on potential. How much potential there was is still up for debate.

Banowsky has certainly bragged about the league's accomplishments under his reign. The addition of six new members, alliances with six bowl games, and a 'lucrative' television agreement with CSTV headline that list. Unfortunately, those six new members are far weaker than the nine schools that departed, the bowl games (with the exception of the Liberty Bowl) are all lower-tier games, and CSTV is a floundering network with few subscribers and little availability.

Looking back, it would have been great for C-USA had a strong leader been in place during the shake-up caused by the ACC. A strong commissioner may have been able to leverage the turmoil the Big East was dealing with in order to attract one of their premier programs (e.g. West Virginia) to jump ship and come to C-USA. Such a move would have almost guaranteed that programs like Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU would have stayed put. It would have also weakened the Big East and put C-USA on a strong enough footing to usurp the Big East for its automatic BCS berth status.

Even if that ideal scenario didn't play out, a strong leader could have targeted the best programs available. Needless to say, the programs that joined C-USA after the shake-up were not among such a list. Given C-USA's status at the time, it is safe to say that any program from outside the six BCS conferences and the Mountain West were approachable. Instead of an all-sports conference, the league should've looked to include both flavors (football and basketball schools). Doing such may have allowed the conference to keep Charlotte and Saint Louis.

In the end, Banowsky dropped the ball and tried to recreate the lower half of the old Southwest Conference for his new Western division (which expands as far as El Paso in the westernmost part of Texas) while joining four of his mainstays with MAC defectors, UCF and Marshall, in his new Eastern division (which expands as far as the coast of North Carolina). As a result of the newly configured league, the conference has steadily dropped in performance for both football and basketball.

What happened was unfortunate, but it can not be changed now. At this point, all stakeholders in C-USA should be concerned with what can be done to improve the fortunes of the league. Knowing that East Carolina, UCF, and Memphis are likely targets of the next Big East expansion (should it happen) must be at the forefront of the league's planning. It would certainly pay for the league to be more proactive to an impending raid than reactive, like last time.

What should be done, though? Well, C-USA no longer has the luxury of boasting a relatively lofty status in the collegiate landscape. So, attempts to recapture programs like Charlotte or St. Louis from a conference as strong as the A-10 are virtually out of the question. With regards to football, however, the status is the same as it's been since the shake-up. Only programs from the six BCS conferences and the Mountain West are untouchable. That said, here's what I would recommend for increasing the conference's profile and protecting the league against future losses.

(1) Vote to expand to 18 programs total, to potentially include non-football playing members, consisting of two sub-leagues (East and West) where each sub-league can be self-contained in many respects. This would tighten the geographic footprint that must be traveled for all sports. Conference championship events would still include representatives from each sub-league.

(2) The East sub-league would consist of five current members (East Carolina, UCF, UAB, Southern Miss and Marshall) plus four target institutions. Those target institutions would consist of Navy, Army, Troy, and Western Kentucky. Contingency targets would consist of Temple, Middle Tennessee, and FAU. Any of these schools would contribute to a sounder geographic footprint. Navy and Army add prestige, Navy and Troy add football prowess, and Western Kentucky adds basketball prowess with strong potential for a quality football program at the FBS level.

(3) The West sub-league would consist of seven current members (Memphis, Tulane, Houston, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, and UTEP) plus two target institutions. Those target institutions would consist of Fresno State and Boise State. Contingency targets would consist of Nevada and Louisiana Tech. Though Fresno and Boise would obviously expand the footprint of the league well past Texas, they would still be worth adding for the overall prestige and football prowess they would add to the conference.

Ultimately, there are many other plans that warrant as much or more merit than the one presented above. Simply put, there are enough options out there such that C-USA should be considering something. Banowsky would be remiss if he failed to be proactive this time around.

Monday, March 17, 2008

98% Success: 64 of the 65 Tournament Teams Projected Correctly

In my post prior to any games being played on Selection Sunday, I revealed my anticipated field of 65. I had Ohio State in, but I noted a contingency that would put them out should Georgia win the SEC title. Georgia did indeed win the SEC. Thus, I had 64 of the 65 teams projected correctly (33 of the 34 at-larges, 97%). The only mistake I made in projecting who would get in was by putting New Mexico of the Mountain West in over Oregon of the Pac-10.

With regards to seedings, I correctly placed 21 teams. I was off by only one seed on another 25 teams. So, I placed teams within one seed of their actual NCAA seeding 71% of the time. I was two seeds off for 6 teams, three seeds off for 8 teams, and missed 4 others by more than three seeds.

Who received the biggest bumps by the selection committee?

Oklahoma (22-11, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #13): Though Oklahoma did play the 12th toughest schedule in the country, I only had them ranked #69. The Sooners had a losing record away from home (7-8), a losing record against my top 100 (9-10), squeaked out 5 close wins, were only 7-5 down the stretch, and failed to capture a signature victory. Their best win was at home against my #24, Gonzaga. The last time we saw the Sooners in action, they were pummeled 77-49 by Texas in the Big XII tournament.

Oregon (18-13, NCAA #9, Rogers Poll n/a): The Ducks were the only team to make the field despite not being projected in by me. I did, however, have Oregon ranked #60 and listed as one of my top eight out. The fact remains that this team didn't put together a strong enough resume to warrant inclusion. They had a losing record in conference (9-10), had a non-winning record down the stretch (6-6), were a miserable 5-10 away from home, and had a losing record against my top 100 (9-12). Their schedule was tough (#23), but they failed to capture more than a handful of good wins.

Washington State (24-8, NCAA #4, Rogers Poll #9): The Cougars are a good team, but not an elite team, as their #4 seed in the NCAA tournament implies. I have them ranked #34, having played the 39th toughest schedule. They were an impressive 11-4 away from Pullman and proved they could beat good teams consistently as they were 13-7 against my top 100. However, they were 3-7 against the top 50, posted a modest 7-5 record at season's end, and defeated only one top 25 team (#24 Gonzaga). With all of that said, I expect them to be a dangerous team in the tournament with a real chance to get to the Sweet 16.

USC (21-11, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #9): The Men of Troy came a long way from their season opening loss to Mercer (11-19, #291). They managed a 20+ win season and a 12-8 record in the nation's best conference despite playing the 6th toughest schedule. They also pulled out signature victories over #2 UCLA and #16 Stanford. Outside of those two big wins though, they were 1-8 against the top 50. This team is definitely deserving of an at-large bid and a single-digit seeding. However, handing them a 6-seed implies they are a top 25 team. Compare their resumes to the top 25 ... it just doesn't add up.

Miami (22-10, NCAA #7, Rogers Poll #10): The Hurricanes finished the season ranked #41 by me, playing a relatively mild schedule (#68) and posting a non-winning record in ACC play (9-9). They also benefited from 5 close wins. They lost 4 games to teams outside of my top 100, including two against teams ranked lower than 170 (Boston College and NC State). They can boast a solid home win against #6 Duke, but they have no further wins against the top 25. The last time we saw them, they were dominated, 63-49, by Virginia Tech, a team that failed to make the NCAA tournament.

Mississippi State (22-10, NCAA #8, Rogers Poll #11): The Bulldogs finished the season ranked #48 by me having played the #47 schedule. With their 22-win season, 13-5 mark in the SEC, and 8-4 record down the stretch, they were obviously deserving of an at-large berth. However, the selection committee granted them seed favoring a berth in the second round. Their best win of the season was against #32 Arkansas and their best road win of the year was at #71 Florida. For a team that was 4-9 against the top 100, you have to question whether or not they really deserved it.

San Diego (21-13, NCAA #13, Rogers Poll #16): The Toreros won the WCC tournament and ensured 3-bids for their league. Boasting a 21-win season, a 14-3 ledger in conference play, two wins over St. Mary's, a win over Gonzaga, a win over Kentucky, and a 10-2 record to conclude the year sure makes them look good on the surface. However, they played in the 23rd ranked conference, posted an 8-8 record away from home, lost to #310 Cal State Bakersfield (8-21) at home, and were 4-11 against the top 100. They beat up on little guys, going 17-2 against teams outside the top 100.


Who received the biggest shafts by the selection committee?

New Mexico (24-8, NCAA n/a, Rogers Poll #10): The Lobos were the one team I projected into the tournament that did not get the nod from the selection committee. They finished the year ranked #39 in my rankings, despite playing a weak schedule (#139). The strongest argument for them was their run at season's end. They were 8-2 in their last ten, with both losses coming in overtime to good teams (#13 BYU and Utah). They also captured a 59-45 win over #26 UNLV in their home finale.

BYU (27-7, NCAA #8, Rogers Poll #4): The decision by the selection committee to seed the Cougars so low may be the biggest insult of all. The Cougars posted a 27-win season, including a 16-3 mark in the nation's 7th best conference, were 10-2 down the stretch, 11-6 away from home, 8-7 against the top 100, defeated #10 Louisville, #26 UNLV, and #39 New Mexico twice. They only lost to one team all season that failed to post 20 wins (Wake Forest, 17-13). Many will point to their schedule (#115), but they did not slip up against a weak opponent and they proved time and time again that they could beat good ones.

Western Kentucky (27-6, NCAA #12, Rogers Poll #8): Though they played in the 13th ranked Sun Belt, their only 2 losses in conference play came to #27 South Alabama. Furthermore, they took home the conference tournament championship. They were 11-1 down the stretch with a lone 5-point loss to 26-6 USA. They were an amazing 14-5 away from Bowling Green. The thing that ultimately cost them, however, was their weak schedule (#169) and only one quality win out-of-conference (overtime against 19-12 Nebraska).

Marquette (24-9, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #3): The Golden Eagles finished the season #11 in my rankings, played the #31 schedule, had a winning record away from home, posted 5 wins over the top 50, and posted a 13-8 record in the Big East (which sent 8 teams to the NCAA tournament). Three of their nine losses came by 4 points or less to #6 Duke, #21 Notre Dame, and #9 Georgetown. They can also boast road wins over #3 Wisconsin and Villanova, a neutral site win over #21 Notre Dame, and home wins against #21 Notre Dame, and the Big East tournament champions, #19 Pittsburgh.

St. Mary's (25-6, NCAA #10, Rogers Poll #7): The Gaels are my #22 team, having handed #17 Drake one of their only four losses, in addition to key wins over a Pac-10 at-large team, Oregon, conference rival, #24 Gonzaga, and Big West champion, Cal State Fullerton. In all, they hold a 6-4 record against the top 100. Additionally, they posted a 10-5 record away from home and an 8-4 mark down the stretch. They pushed San Diego to overtime in the conference championship game, and lost only once to a non-20-win team (Southern Illinois, 17-14).

South Alabama (26-6, NCAA #10, Rogers Poll #7): The Jaguars end up my #27 ranked team. Of their six losses, four were by four points or less. In all, they only played 5 games against the top 50, but were 3-2 in those match-ups, defeating Mississippi State and Western Kentucky twice. The two losses against the top 50 were both by 3 points, on the road against SEC opponents (Ole Miss and #18 Vanderbilt). So, there is no question that they can compete at a high level. They were 9-5 away from home and 9-3 in the stretch run. They have the potential to make a run in the tournament.

Cornell (22-5, NCAA #14, Rogers Poll #11): Apparently, it's fashionable to seed the Ivy League representative low. However, the Big Red are not the typical Ivy team. They were 14-0 in league play, 10-4 away from home, and finished the year as my #42 team. They did play a very weak schedule (#320), but they proved they could play at a higher level, going 3-3 against the top 100, including a win over 22-10 Siena. Among their five losses on the season were road trips to Syracuse and #6 Duke.

The play-in game is not between the two worst entries

Finally, I want to make note of the selection committee's not-so-subtle decision to put Mount St. Mary's in the play-in game. Since the inception of the play-in game, the major opponents of its existence have pointed to its seemingly inherent purpose of pitting the conference champions from the two Historically Black College and University (HBCU) leagues, the SWAC and the MEAC. This year, there is no question that a merit based decision would have done exactly that, with Coppin State and Mississippi Valley State squaring off for the right to play North Carolina in the opening round. However, the committee opted to replace the Delta Devils with Mount St. Mary's. I guess they hoped no one would notice or care. I'm sure they are probably right about the latter.

Strength of Schedule Rankings: 03/17/08

Below are the current strength of schedule rankings for the 2007-2008 season. The strength of schedule scores are calculated by using the average poll score of each team's opponents. The current record and conference affiliation of each team is also noted.

Please note that my poll scores do not include strength of schedule as I do not believe teams should be rewarded for simply walking out on the same court with a superior team. Teams are rewarded if they beat a good team, or even play them close. Likewise, teams are hurt if they lose to a bad team or barely beat them. As a result, averaging the poll scores is an accurate method in which to derive my SOS.





1. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 15-17, ACC, 643.58
2. Illinois Fighting Illini, 16-19, Big Ten, 643.18
3. Arizona Wildcats, 19-14, Pac-10, 642.94
4. Michigan Wolverines, 10-22, Big Ten, 642.49
5. Louisville Cardinals, 24-8, Big East, 639.90





6. USC Trojans, 21-11, Pac-10, 638.90
7. California Golden Bears, 16-15, Pac-10, 636.69
8. Cincinnati Bearcats, 13-18, Big East, 636.43
9. Syracuse Orange, 19-13, Big East, 635.19
10. Tennessee Volunteers, 29-4, SEC, 635.02





11. Ohio State Buckeyes, 19-13, Big Ten, 627.82
12. Oklahoma Sooners, 22-11, Big XII, 627.05
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 17-15, Big XII, 627.02
14. Florida State Seminoles, 19-14, ACC, 626.91
15. South Carolina Gamecocks, 14-18, SEC, 626.45





16. DePaul Blue Demons, 11-19, Big East, 626.37
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 16-15, Big XII, 626.07
18. North Carolina Tar Heels, 32-2, ACC, 625.38
19. St. John's Red Storm, 11-19, Big East, 624.96
20. Boston College Eagles, 14-17, ACC, 624.81





21. Texas Longhorns, 28-6, Big XII, 623.44
22. Duke Blue Devils, 27-5, ACC, 622.46
23. Oregon Ducks, 18-13, Pac-10, 621.64
24. NC State Wolfpack, 15-16, ACC, 620.76
25. Providence Friars, 15-16, Big East, 619.69



The remaining Division I programs are ranked below ...

26. Arkansas Razorbacks, 22-11, SEC, 619.65
27. Pittsburgh Panthers, 26-9, Big East, 618.85
28. Michigan State Spartans, 25-8, Big Ten, 617.71
29. Connecticut Huskies, 24-8, Big East, 616.84
30. Alabama Crimson Tide, 17-16, SEC, 616.59
31. Marquette Golden Eagles, 24-9, Big East, 615.77
32. Georgetown Hoyas, 27-5, Big East, 615.71
33. Kentucky Wildcats, 18-12, SEC, 615.57
34. Maryland Terrapins, 18-14, ACC, 615.03
35. Clemson Tigers, 24-9, ACC, 612.85
36. Georgia Bulldogs, 17-16, SEC, 612.79
37. Virginia Tech Hokies, 19-13, ACC, 610.96
38. Villanova Wildcats, 20-12, Big East, 609.69
39. Washington State Cougars, 24-8, Pac-10, 608.29
40. Washington Huskies, 16-16, Pac-10, 606.96
41. Missouri Tigers, 16-16, Big XII, 606.81
42. Vanderbilt Commodores, 26-7, SEC, 605.79
43. Indiana Hoosiers, 25-7, Big Ten, 605.60
44. UCLA Bruins, 31-3, Pac-10, 604.43
45. Northwestern Wildcats, 8-22, Big Ten, 604.30
46. Southern Illinois Salukis, 17-14, MVC, 603.59
47. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 22-10, SEC, 602.64
48. Stanford Cardinal, 26-7, Pac-10, 602.53
49. Seton Hall Pirates, 17-15, Big East, 600.93
50. Xavier Musketeers, 27-6, A-10, 600.68

51. Colorado Buffaloes, 12-20, Big XII, 600.22
52. West Virginia Mountaineers, 24-10, Big East, 599.74
53. Kansas State Wildcats, 20-11, Big XII, 598.53
54. Texas A&M Aggies, 24-10, Big XII, 597.80
55. Dayton Flyers, 21-10, A-10, 597.42
56. Arizona State Sun Devils, 19-12, Pac-10, 597.20
57. Virginia Cavaliers, 15-15, ACC, 597.15
58. Kansas Jayhawks, 31-3, Big XII, 596.12
59. Ole Miss Rebels, 21-10, SEC, 595.24
60. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 24-7, Big East, 594.94
61. Wisconsin Badgers, 29-4, Big Ten, 594.43
62. Penn State Nittany Lions, 15-16, Big Ten, 593.73
63. Baylor Bears, 21-10, Big XII, 593.00
64. South Florida Bulls, 12-19, Big East, 592.30
65. Miami (OH) Red Hawks, 17-15, MAC, 591.08
66. Memphis Tigers, 33-1, C-USA, 589.48
67. LSU Tigers, 13-18, SEC, 589.27
68. Miami Hurricanes, 22-10, ACC, 587.91
69. Temple Owls, 21-12, A-10, 586.93
70. Oregon State Beavers, 6-25, Pac-10, 586.59
71. Auburn Tigers, 14-16, SEC, 585.86
72. Florida Gators, 21-11, SEC, 585.48
73. George Washington Colonials, 9-17, A-10, 585.31
74. Iowa Hawkeyes, 13-19, Big Ten, 584.92
75. Charlotte 49ers, 20-13, A-10, 584.09
76. St. Joseph's Hawks, 21-12, A-10, 582.09
77. Iowa State Cyclones, 14-18, Big XII, 581.43
78. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 19-12, Big XII, 577.91
79. Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 17-13, ACC, 577.24
80. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 11-20, Big East, 576.41
81. Bradley Braves, 17-15, MVC, 576.00
82. Utah Utes, 17-14, Mtn West, 574.62
83. Indiana State Sycamores, 15-16, MVC, 573.26
84. Wichita State Shockers, 11-20, MVC, 572.85
85. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 20-13, Big Ten, 570.03
86. UNLV Rebels, 26-7, Mtn West, 569.77
87. Massachusetts Minutemen, 21-10, A-10, 569.63
88. Missouri State Bears, 17-16, MVC, 568.60
89. Purdue Boilermakers, 24-8, Big Ten, 568.37
90. St. Louis Billikens, 16-15, A-10, 567.06
91. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, 17-15, Sun Belt, 566.56
92. Illinois State Redbirds, 24-9, MVC, 565.57
93. Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix, 15-15, Horizon, 564.00
94. Toledo Rockets, 11-19, MAC, 563.80
95. Old Dominion Monarchs, 17-15, CAA, 563.72
96. Creighton Bluejays, 21-10, MVC, 563.00
97. Fordham Rams, 12-17, A-10, 562.93
98. Richmond Spiders, 16-14, A-10, 560.73
99. Colorado State Rams, 7-25, Mtn West, 560.58
100. Rice Owls, 3-27, C-USA, 560.47

101. Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers, 14-16, Horizon, 557.32
102. Ball State Cardinals, 6-24, MAC, 555.38
103. Ohio Bobcats, 19-12, MAC, 555.27
104. Rhode Island Rams, 21-11, A-10, 555.01
105. Youngstown State Penguins, 9-21, Horizon, 554.73
106. UAB Blazers, 22-10, C-USA, 553.60
107. San Diego State Aztecs, 20-12, Mtn West, 553.48
108. FIU Golden Panthers, 9-20, Sun Belt, 552.13
109. Detroit Titans, 7-23, Horizon, 552.09
110. Gonzaga Bulldogs, 25-7, WCC, 551.36
111. Valparaiso Crusaders, 21-13, Horizon, 550.96
112. Northern Iowa Panthers, 18-14, MVC, 550.72
113. Kent State Golden Flashes, 28-6, MAC, 547.08
114. Evansville Aces, 9-21, MVC, 546.64
115. BYU Cougars, 27-7, Mtn West, 546.38
116. Cleveland State Vikings, 21-12, Horizon, 544.95
117. George Mason Patriots, 23-10, CAA, 543.25
118. Northern Illinois Huskies, 6-22, MAC, 543.07
119. San Diego Toreros, 21-13, WCC, 542.95
120. Drake Bulldogs, 28-4, MVC, 542.66
121. Marshall Thundering Herd, 16-14, C-USA, 541.94
122. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders, 9-20, Southland, 541.86
123. St. Bonaventure Bonnies, 8-22, A-10, 541.57
124. Duquesne Dukes, 17-13, A-10, 541.38
125. UCF Knights, 16-15, C-USA, 540.91
126. Butler Bulldogs, 29-3, Horizon, 540.37
127. Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 20-13, C-USA, 539.66
128. Nicholls State Colonels, 10-21, Southland, 539.35
129. Wright State Raiders, 21-10, Horizon, 538.88
130. Tulane Green Wave, 17-15, C-USA, 538.54
131. UTEP Miners, 19-13, C-USA, 537.23
132. New Mexico Lobos, 24-8, Mtn West, 536.73
133. Pepperdine Waves, 11-21, WCC, 536.26
134. Akron Zips, 23-10, MAC, 534.48
135. Drexel Dragons, 12-20, CAA, 533.26
136. Northeastern Huskies, 14-17, CAA, 532.74
137. Illinois-Chicago Flames, 18-15, Horizon, 532.16
138. Marist Red Foxes, 18-14, MAAC, 531.36
139. Loyola (IL) Ramblers, 12-19, Horizon, 530.87
140. La Salle Explorers, 15-17, A-10, 530.51
141. Buffalo Bulls, 10-20, MAC, 530.19
142. Siena Saints, 22-10, MAAC, 529.77
143. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, 24-8, Summit, 529.74
144. Fairfield Stags, 14-16, MAAC, 529.65
145. UL Monroe Warhawks, 10-21, Sun Belt, 529.61
146. TCU Horned Frogs, 14-16, Mtn West, 528.96
147. Chattanooga Mocs, 18-13, SOCON, 528.66
148. Delaware Blue Hens, 14-17, CAA, 528.20
149. Southern Utah Thunderbirds, 11-19, Summit, 527.80
150. VCU Rams, 24-7, CAA, 527.62

151. Troy Trojans, 12-19, Sun Belt, 527.35
152. Air Force Falcons, 16-14, Mtn West, 526.85
153. UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 15-15, Sun Belt, 526.63
154. Bowling Green Falcons, 13-17, MAC, 525.89
155. IPFW Mastodons, 13-18, Summit, 525.43
156. Holy Cross Crusaders, 15-14, Patriot, 525.25
157. North Carolina Central Eagles, 4-26, Independent, 525.00
158. William & Mary Tribe, 17-16, CAA, 524.84
159. Loyola Marymount Lions, 5-26, WCC, 524.64
160. Wyoming Cowboys, 12-18, Mtn West, 524.38
161. New Mexico State Aggies, 21-14, WAC, 522.95
162. Davidson Wildcats, 26-6, SOCON, 522.73
163. Bucknell Bison, 12-19, Patriot, 522.70
164. James Madison Dukes, 13-17, CAA, 522.62
165. Nevada Wolfpack, 21-11, WAC, 522.18
166. Winthrop Eagles, 22-11, Big South, 522.13
167. UNC Greensboro Spartans, 19-12, SOCON, 522.10
168. Houston Cougars, 22-9, C-USA, 521.79
169. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 27-6, Sun Belt, 521.35
170. UC Riverside Highlanders, 9-21, Big West, 521.24
171. UNC Wilmington Seahawks, 20-13, CAA, 520.81
172. South Alabama Jaguars, 26-6, Sun Belt, 520.59
173. Furman Paladins, 7-23, SOCON, 520.52
174. St. Mary's Gaels, 25-6, WCC, 519.89
175. Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 19-14, C-USA, 519.88
176. Towson Tigers, 13-18, CAA, 519.67
177. Fresno State Bulldogs, 13-19, WAC, 519.49
178. Iona Gaels, 12-20, MAAC, 519.43
179. Chicago State Cougars, 11-17, Independent, 519.41
180. Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners, 13-17, Southland, 518.76
181. UMKC Kangaroos, 11-21, Summit, 518.62
182. SMU Mustangs, 10-20, C-USA, 518.37
183. Arkansas State Indians, 10-20, Sun Belt, 517.93
184. Northwestern State Demons, 15-18, Southland, 517.20
185. San Francisco Dons, 10-21, WCC, 515.33
186. Georgia State Panthers, 9-21, CAA, 515.19
187. UC Irvine Anteaters, 18-16, Big West, 515.01
188. East Carolina Pirates, 11-19, C-USA, 515.01
189. Western Illinois Leathernecks, 12-18, Summit, 514.72
190. Canisius Golden Griffins, 6-25, MAAC, 513.29
191. Hofstra Pride, 12-18, CAA, 513.21
192. College of Charleston Cougars, 16-17, SOCON, 512.86
193. Denver Pioneers, 11-19, Sun Belt, 511.69
194. FAU Owls, 15-18, Sun Belt, 511.54
195. Long Beach State 49ers, 6-25, Big West, 511.31
196. Oakland Golden Grizzlies, 17-14, Summit, 509.78
197. Elon Phoenix, 14-19, SOCON, 509.73
198. Centenary Gentlemen, 10-21, Summit, 509.65
199. Central Michigan Chippewas, 14-17, MAC, 509.35
200. San Jose State Spartans, 13-19, WAC, 509.24

201. Eastern Michigan Eagles, 14-17, MAC, 509.13
202. St. Peter's Peacocks, 6-24, MAAC, 508.86
203. Western Carolina Catamounts, 10-21, SOCON, 508.78
204. Idaho Vandals, 8-21, WAC, 508.08
205. Cal Poly Mustangs, 12-18, Big West, 507.86
206. Presbyterian Blue Hose, 5-25, Independent, 506.99
207. Western Michigan Broncos, 20-12, MAC, 506.73
208. Hawaii Warriors, 11-19, WAC, 506.08
209. American Eagles, 21-11, Patriot, 506.01
210. Yale Bulldogs, 13-15, Ivy, 505.05
211. Portland Pilots, 9-22, WCC, 504.19
212. Harvard Crimson, 8-22, Ivy, 504.09
213. UC Davis Aggies, 9-22, Big West, 503.59
214. Santa Clara Broncos, 15-16, WCC, 503.35
215. Utah State Aggies, 24-10, WAC, 502.55
216. McNeese State Cowboys, 13-16, Southland, 501.66
217. North Texas Mean Green, 20-11, Sun Belt, 501.62
218. Appalachian State Mountaineers, 18-13, SOCON, 501.30
219. Cal State Northridge Matadors, 20-10, Big West, 499.79
220. Georgia Southern Eagles, 20-12, SOCON, 499.41
221. Austin Peay Governors, 24-10, OVC, 497.99
222. New Orleans Privateers, 19-13, Sun Belt, 497.75
223. Citadel Bulldogs, 6-24, SOCON, 497.58
224. Lafayette Leopards, 15-15, Patriot, 497.55
225. NJIT Highlanders, 0-29, Independent, 497.13
226. Radford Highlanders, 10-20, Big South, 496.71
227. Monmouth Hawks, 7-24, NEC, 496.64
228. Niagara Purple Eagles, 19-10, MAAC, 496.36
229. Wofford Terriers, 16-16, SOCON, 496.26
230. Sacramento State Hornets, 4-24, Big Sky, 496.13
231. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 6-24, WAC, 495.45
232. Texas State Bobcats, 13-16, Southland, 495.32
233. Idaho State Bengals, 12-19, Big Sky, 495.09
234. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds, 19-14, MAAC, 495.05
235. Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs, 16-16, A-Sun, 494.68
236. East Tennessee State Buccaneers, 19-13, A-Sun, 494.39
237. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, 8-20, NEC, 491.42
238. Lamar Cardinals, 19-11, Southland, 491.36
239. Boise State Broncos, 25-8, WAC, 490.97
240. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, 23-8, Big West, 490.80
241. Hartford Hawks, 18-16, AEC, 489.92
242. Eastern Washington Eagles, 11-19, Big Sky, 489.21
243. South Dakota State Jackrabbits, 8-21, Summit, 488.34
244. Princeton Tigers, 6-23, Ivy, 487.84
245. Belmont Bruins, 25-8, A-Sun, 487.22
246. Cal State Fullerton Titans, 24-8, Big West, 487.10
247. IUPUI Jaguars, 26-7, Summit, 486.67
248. Howard Bison, 6-26, MEAC, 485.61
249. Hampton Pirates, 18-12, MEAC, 485.46
250. Army Black Knights, 14-16, Patriot, 485.42

251. Pennsylvania Quakers, 13-18, Ivy, 483.95
252. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers, 18-14, NEC, 483.58
253. Delaware State Hornets, 14-16, MEAC, 483.43
254. Rider Broncs, 23-10, MAAC, 483.16
255. South Carolina Upstate Spartans, 7-23, A-Sun, 483.13
256. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, 21-11, Big Sky, 482.82
257. North Florida Ospreys, 3-26, A-Sun, 482.70
258. Lipscomb Bisons, 15-16, A-Sun, 482.12
259. Savannah State Tigers, 13-18, Independent, 481.73
260. Colgate Raiders, 18-14, Patriot, 481.63
261. UNC Asheville Bulldogs, 23-9, Big South, 481.63
262. Quinnipiac Bobcats, 15-15, NEC, 481.56
263. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash, 6-23, NEC, 481.41
264. Tennessee State Tigers, 15-17, OVC, 481.31
265. Albany Great Danes, 15-15, AEC, 481.19
266. Texas-Arlington Mavericks, 21-11, Southland, 480.97
267. MD Eastern Shore Hawks, 4-28, MEAC, 480.13
268. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, 10-21, A-Sun, 480.03
269. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, 13-15, Big South, 479.97
270. Boston Terriers, 14-17, AEC, 478.91
271. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans, 20-11, Sun Belt, 478.85
272. Sam Houston State Bearkats, 23-8, Southland, 478.00
273. Portland State Vikings, 23-9, Big Sky, 477.28
274. Eastern Kentucky Colonels, 14-16, OVC, 477.26
275. Pacific Tigers, 21-10, Big West, 476.90
276. Coppin State Eagles, 16-20, MEAC, 476.01
277. Montana Grizzlies, 14-16, Big Sky, 475.56
278. Charleston Southern Buccaneers, 10-20, Big South, 475.41
279. Jacksonville Dolphins, 18-13, A-Sun, 475.20
280. Manhattan Jaspers, 12-19, MAAC, 474.75
281. Tennessee Martin Skyhawks, 17-16, OVC, 474.59
282. Binghamton Bearcats, 14-16, AEC, 474.34
283. Brown Bears, 19-9, Ivy, 474.03
284. Liberty Flames, 16-16, Big South, 473.84
285. St. Francis (NY) Terriers, 7-22, NEC, 473.65
286. Weber State Wildcats, 16-14, Big Sky, 472.66
287. Morehead State Eagles, 15-15, OVC, 472.04
288. North Dakota State Bison, 16-13, Summit, 471.39
289. Central Connecticut Blue Devils, 14-16, NEC, 470.71
290. Long Island Blackbirds, 15-15, NEC, 470.36
291. SE Louisiana Lions, 17-13, Southland, 469.88
292. Campbell Fighting Camels, 10-20, A-Sun, 469.88
293. Stony Brook Seawolves, 7-23, AEC, 469.17
294. Sacred Heart Pioneers, 18-14, NEC, 469.11
295. Maine Black Bears, 7-23, AEC, 467.19
296. Central Arkansas Bears, 14-16, Southland, 466.97
297. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners, 8-21, Independent, 466.94
298. Vermont Catamounts, 16-15, AEC, 466.83
299. SE Missouri State Redhawks, 12-19, OVC, 466.63
300. UMBC Retreivers, 24-8, AEC, 466.25

301. North Carolina A&T Aggies, 15-16, MEAC, 466.09
302. New Hampshire Wildcats, 9-20, AEC, 465.79
303. Murray State Racers, 18-13, OVC, 465.37
304. Florida A&M Rattlers, 15-17, MEAC, 464.86
305. Texas Southern Tigers, 7-25, SWAC, 464.47
306. Montana State Bobcats, 15-15, Big Sky, 464.36
307. Morgan State Golden Bears, 22-10, MEAC, 464.31
308. Longwood Lancers, 9-22, Independent, 463.45
309. Lehigh Mountain Hawks, 14-15, Patriot, 461.83
310. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, 26-5, Southland, 461.69
311. South Carolina State Bulldogs, 13-20, MEAC, 461.28
312. High Point Panthers, 17-14, Big South, 461.13
313. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles, 13-19, OVC, 460.55
314. Northern Colorado Bears, 13-16, Big Sky, 459.13
315. Navy Mishipmen, 16-14, Patriot, 458.92
316. Samford Bulldogs, 14-16, OVC, 458.18
317. Dartmouth Big Green, 10-18, Ivy, 457.82
318. Columbia Lions, 14-15, Ivy, 457.53
319. Wagner Seahawks, 23-8, NEC, 457.11
320. Cornell Big Red, 22-5, Ivy, 456.93
321. VMI Keydets, 14-15, Big South, 454.64
322. Kennesaw State Owls, 10-20, A-Sun, 451.42
323. Jacksonville State Gamecocks, 7-22, OVC, 451.17
324. Eastern Illinois Panthers, 7-22, OVC, 450.37
325. Mercer Bears, 11-19, A-Sun, 449.26
326. Stetson Hatters, 16-16, A-Sun, 448.91
327. Bethune Cookman Wildcats, 11-21, MEAC, 446.80
328. Robert Morris Colonials, 26-7, NEC, 442.86
329. Jackson State Tigers, 14-20, SWAC, 442.78
330. Prairie View A&M Panthers, 8-22, SWAC, 439.93
331. Winston-Salem State Rams, 12-18, MEAC, 439.83
332. Utah Valley State Wolverines, 15-14, Independent, 439.79
333. Southern Jaguars, 11-19, SWAC, 416.32
334. Norfolk State Spartans, 16-15, MEAC, 415.82
335. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils, 17-15, SWAC, 415.58
336. Alcorn State Braves, 7-24, SWAC, 412.28
337. Grambling State Tigers, 7-19, SWAC, 400.37
338. Texas Pan American Broncs, 18-13, Independent, 393.65
339. Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions, 13-18, SWAC, 387.91
340. Alabama A&M Bulldogs, 14-15, SWAC, 378.73
341. Alabama State Hornets, 20-10, SWAC, 371.88